Looking to Avoid Succumbing to Outcome Bias? Read This

So you’re watching a match between Leicester City and Manchester United and you’re thinking about betting on the former for some good money after making bank on previous matches. Here are the current betting odds: 

  • 5/4 (2.25) - Leicester City

  • 29/10 (3.90) - Draw 

  • 9/5 (2.80) - Manchester United 

  • During the announcement of the starting eleven for both sides, you realize that Leicester City is missing a key player that dramatically influences the team’s 2.25 odds of winning. Taking all the new information into mind, you’re convinced that Manchester United is now a value bet and decide to act on your conclusion by placing £400 on The Red Devils to win at 9/5. 

    After placing your bet, you sit down and watch the game for five or so minutes before checking your phone again for any updates. To your surprise, you end up seeing that the odds on Manchester United winning are now 6/5—which seems like a pretty good outcome for your money since they’re an even bigger underdog in the better’s books, right?

    Well, disaster strikes: Leicester City seems to do exceptionally well even without Johnny Evans, and they manage to revive Brazil’s worst nightmare by going 7-1 against United at full time. With £400 lost, you’re understandably fuming and have your tail in between your legs after making such a ballsy bet…

    But this only shows one lesson that you should take to heart: Stop succumbing to outcome bias, especially in football betting. 

    What Is Outcome Bias?

    Outcome bias arises when you make a decision based on the outcome of previous events, without any regard to how the past events developed. 

    In layman’s terms, it happens when you judge the performance of a bet based on whether it won or lost instead of accounting for why it was placed or whether it was good or bad. Unfortunately, most UK betters overlook the fact that whether the bet won or lost doesn’t tell them if it was a good bet or not. In fact, W/L stats are actually irrelevant for judging bets. 

    How Can You Avoid Outcome Bias?

    Like any reasonable person that learns from their mistakes, you’re most likely wondering about how you can stop succumbing to outcome bias. 

    The only way to correctly judge the success of a bet without any risk of outcome bias is to see whether you beat the margin-free closing line. However, this task is undoubtedly more complex than the average better’s tolerance for calculations. 

    Here are a few simple football betting tips and tricks that you can follow: 

    1. Stop Following Tipsters

    As cliche as this sounds, one of the critical tips to avoid outcome bias when making your football bets is not following a tipster. If you want to make your best with more reliable references, it’s ideal to go for more dependable sources such as specialized programs or DataVision Sport’s best-in-class Data Dashboards! 

    2. Start Taking Notes

    Another helpful tip is to start keeping records of all your bets and the closing lines of all of them. You can note whether the bet beat the closing line with a simple yes or no. This record can surely help you make sound betting decisions in the future!


    Avoiding outcome bias when making your football bets is a simple process that entails taking the right tips and key points into consideration. By being more mindful of previous outcomes, you’ll become a better and less finicky bettor that’s guaranteed to rake in more winnings! 

    Do you need football betting tips to up your game? DataVision Sport is your home for English football predictions and data. Use our best-in-class data dashboards to explore our data, inform your betting and get predictions on English Premier League football matches. Get in touch with us today to see how we can help!

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